An autoregressive approach to house price modeling

A statistical model for predicting individual house prices and constructing a house price index is proposed utilizing information regarding sale price, time of sale and location (ZIP code). This model is composed of a fixed time effect and a random ZIP (postal) code effect combined with an autoregressive component. The former two components are applied to all home sales, while the latter is applied only to homes sold repeatedly. The time effect can be converted into a house price index. To evaluate the proposed model and the resulting index, single-family home sales for twenty US metropolitan areas from July 1985 through September 2004 are analyzed. The model is shown to have better predictive abilities than the benchmark S&P/Case--Shiller model, which is a repeat sales model, and a conventional mixed effects model. Finally, Los Angeles, CA, is used to illustrate a historical housing market downturn.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/10-AOAS380 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

The non-linear evolution of bispectrum from the scale-free N-body simulation

We have accurately measured the bispectrum for four scale-free models of structure formation with the spectral index $n=1$, 0, -1, and -2. The measurement is based on a new method that can effectively eliminate the alias and numerical artifacts, and reliably extend the analysis into the strongly non-linear regime. The work makes use of a set of state-of-the art N-body simulations that have significantly increased the resolution range compared with the previous studies on the subject. With these measured results, we demonstrated that the measured bispectrum depends on the shape and size of $k$-triangle even in the strongly nonlinear regime. It increases with wavenumber and decreases with the spectral index. These results are in contrast with the hypothesis that the reduced bispectrum is a constant in the strongly non-linear regime. We also show that the fitting formula of Scoccimarro & Frieman (1999) does not describe our simulation results well (with a typical error about 40 percent). In the end, we present a new fitting formula for the reduced bispectrum that is valid for $-2 \leq n \leq 0$ with a typical error of 10 percent only.Comment: 33 pages, including 1 table, 14 figures, accepted by Ap

An ecological approach to problems of Dark Energy, Dark Matter, MOND and Neutrinos

Modern astronomical data on galaxy and cosmological scales have revealed powerfully the existence of certain dark sectors of fundamental physics, i.e., existence of particles and fields outside the standard models and inaccessible by current experiments. Various approaches are taken to modify/extend the standard models. Generic theories introduce multiple de-coupled fields A, B, C, each responsible for the effects of DM (cold supersymmetric particles), DE (Dark Energy) effect, and MG (Modified Gravity) effect respectively. Some theories use adopt vanilla combinations like AB, BC, or CA, and assume A, B, C belong to decoupled sectors of physics. MOND-like MG and Cold DM are often taken as opposite frameworks, e.g. in the debate around the Bullet Cluster. Here we argue that these ad hoc divisions of sectors miss important clues from the data. The data actually suggest that the physics of all dark sectors is likely linked together by a self-interacting oscillating field, which governs a chameleon-like dark fluid, appearing as DM, DE and MG in different settings. It is timely to consider an interdisciplinary approach across all semantic boundaries of dark sectors, treating the dark stress as one identity, hence accounts for several "coincidences" naturally.Comment: 12p, Proceedings to the 6-th Int. Conf. of Gravitation and Cosmology. Neutrino section expande

Mechanical performance of composite bonded joints in the presence of localised process-induced zero-thickness defects

Processing parameters and environmental conditions can introduce variation into the performance of adhesively bonded joints. The effect of such variation on the mechanical performance of the joints is not well understood. Moreover, there is no validated nondestructive inspection (NDI) available to ensure bond integrity post-process and in-service so as to guarantee initial and continued airworthiness in aerospace sector. This research studies polymer bond defects produced in the laboratory scale single-lap composite-to-composite joints that may represent the process-induced defects occurring in actual processing scenarios such as composite joining and repair in composite aircrafts. The effect of such defects on the degradation of a joint's mechanical performance is then investigated via quasi-static testing in conjunction with NDI ultrasonic C-scanning and pulsed thermography. This research is divided into three main sections: 1- manufacturing carbon fibre-reinforced composite joints containing representative nearly zero-thickness bond defects, 2- mechanical testing of the composite joints, and 3- assessment of the NDI capability for detection of the bond defects in such joints

Intrinsic Percolative Superconductivity in Heavily Overdoped High Temperature Superconductors

Magnetic measurements on heavily overdoped $La_{2-x}Sr_xCuO_4$, $Tl_2Ba_2CuO_6$, $Bi_2Sr_2CuO_6$ and $Bi_2Sr_2CaCu_2O_8$ single crystals reveal a new type magnetization hysteresis loops characterized by the vanishing of usual central peak near zero field. Since this effect has been observed in various systems with very different structural details, it reflects probably a generic behavior for all high temperature superconductors. This easy penetration of magnetic flux can be understood in the picture of percolative superconductivity due to the inhomogeneous electronic state in heavily overdoped regime.Comment: 4 pages, 5 figure